The Solid Democratic South
The Presidency

Outline
Review
The South and the Electoral College
Democrats and the South: Before 1872
Democrats and the South: 1876-1944

Review
A Southern Realignment?
Proportion of GOP seats in state legislatures and both houses of Congress is roughly the same since 1968 in the North Central, North East, and Pacific West
GOP control has risen dramatically in the South and in the Mountain West
Six alternative explanations of Democratic decline
Public policy change and endorsement of civil rights 1948 Party platform 1964 Civil Rights Act
Conservative shift of Republicans 1952 Eisenhower campaign 1964 Goldwater campaign
Democratic party mistakes 1936 repeal of the 2/3 rule 1968 Humphrey nomination

South and Electoral College
The size of the Southern electoral college vote (see p. 32)
Northeast clearly largest region early
West grows rapidly
South is currently largest region

Democrats and the South prior to the Civil War
The Original Democrats: The “Virginia Dynasty” Virginia property owners (Jefferson, Madison, Monroe)
1860: Neither Republicans (Lincoln) nor Democrats (Douglas) receive electoral votes in the South
South is unified only in opposition to the major parties

1860-1872
A "disorganized minority“ in the South could not counter the growing (and new) Republican success in the North
Republicans dominant in victorious north (and west coast) (see state- level map on p.41: 1860-1872).

1876-1944
Democrats capture entire electoral college in South in 15/17 elections
Only a coalition of Midwestern and Northeastern Republicans (1896-1928) can overcome this disadvantage (see map at pages 42 and 44).
Compare county-level map at page 60: 1896-1928. Patterns of dominance in Reconstruction persist until the New Deal

The core of the Republican coalition
The Republican Party is the party of the North: the Midwestern / Northern coalition abandons Southerners
Note the shift in the South from competitive after Civil War to Democratic dominance by 1932 (compare p. 41 to p. 44).
Given the number of votes in the North before 1932 it appear Republicans had to "work hard to lose the Presidency."

Republican sectionalism
The national economic policy of the GOP in the 1880s: tariff protection for industry, laissez faire regulation, gold standard (stable money)
Lows levels of industry and capital in south implies inferior economic performance
Public policy -- rail subsidies, land reform, and Union vetteran pensions - reinforce this disparity

The South and the Strategy of Obstruction
The original Democrats included the "defensive minority" -- the South -- that were united in support of slavery
Both before the Civil War and after, the South represented around 25% of the delegates to the National Democratic Conventions

The 2/3 rule
The "2/3 rule" stipulated that any nominee for President must secure votes from 2/3 of the convention.
If the Southern states voted as a cohesive group, they could effectively block any nominee that was anti-slavery or (later) advocated racial equality.
A nominee that opposed the Southern bloc would have to get 88 percent of the delegates outside the South

The Impossible coalition
The Democratic coalition evolved into three distinct regional components within the party:
The South shifted from aligning with the North ("Right Fork)" to aligning with the West ("Left Fork")

Three regional components
Urban and Northeast (early emphasis on home rule, states rights, business; later emphasis on opposition to Prohibition and mobilization of immigrants)
Rural west (William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska) (favored prohibition; farm-oriented)
South (rural, racist, fundamentalist, dry)

Al Smith and the urban North
Al Smith (Catholic, anti-prohibition) secured nomination over (divided) Southern objections in 1928
A Southern Vice Presidential nominee was added to the ticket as concession.
Anti-catholic rhetoric was a hallmark of the southern campaign in 1928.
“If you vote for Al Smith, you’re voting against Christ, and you’ll all be damned” (Mordecai Ham, Baptist revival leader)

Collapse of the Veto
Roosevelt won the 1932 nomination over Smith, partly because he was more popular among Southerners.
As party leader, Roosevelt focused on expanding the Northern urban base of the party
In 1936 Roosevelt undid the 2/3 rule in an effort to weaken Southern influence.

Democrats outside the South: The New Deal Coalition
See the gradual increase in Democratic support at the county-level in West, Midwest and Northeast (map, page 63)
"Beneficiary" of failed Republican policies: Democrats won support from urban workers (especially immigrant workers: Italian, Irish)
Even by 1988, 69% of counties were Republican, but only 54% of the vote. Democratic support is still urban

Next
The New Democratic Party of the North
Unravrling of Democratic Dominance