BIOS 597: Human Ecology

Modelling Exercise

 

 

This assignment is due to be handed in to Dr Malcolm by Tuesday, 30 March 2004.  It may be handed in at any time before that deadline.

 

 

This is a computer-based activity using Populus software.

The assignment is worth 100 points

 

 

 

Assignment:

 

Some neighbors are stealing and eating carrots from your vegetable garden and being a nice person you want to know whether you can afford to let them have a few carrots or whether you need them all yourself.  So you decide to predict your yield of carrots after the impact of losses to your neighbors.  You also realize that over long periods of time carrots might even result in an increase in the number of your neighbors.  In order to make predictions you decide to build a simple model.

 

 

Your first step was to take a look at the basic Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey model for a description of the interaction because:

 

              dP/dt = aP - bNP

and

              dN/dt = cNP - dN

 

where:

P  = number of carrot plants

N  = number of neighbors,

a  = the intrinsic rate of increase of carrots,

b  = the feeding rate of neighbors and a measure of the effects of carrots on thieving neighbors,

c  = the numerical response of neighbors (efficiency with which neighbors turn carrots into kids), and

d  = neighbor death rate (if you decide to emigrate and leave them to grow their own darn carrots).

 

which means that carrots would increase without limit in the absence of neighbors.

 

This is unreasonable because you have limited space and so you decide to add a logistic term, (K-P)/K, that limits your carrot population to a carrying capacity, K, through intraspecific competition.  This means that,

 

              dP/dt = (aP(K - P)/K) - bNP

 

and

 

              dN/dt = cNP - dN

 

Model these continuous, differential equations using the POPULUS Interaction Engine (under the "Multispecies Interactions" category) and set the plot to N vs T, t = 100 and do not plot isoclines.  Enter the equations to build the model for 2 interacting species (carrots and neighbors) and set the starting parameters to:

 

P = 200

N = 20

a = 0.2,

d = 0.3,

K = 1000,

c = 0.001, and

b = 0.001.

 

Run the model and turn on the gridding function.

 

 

Now that you have a functioning, resource-limited, plant-herbivore model examine how changes in a, b, and c influence the stability and final population sizes of carrots and neighbors after 100 time intervals.

 

To do this please fill in the following table of carrot and neighbor numbers after 100 time intervals and print out the 9 relevant N vs T plots of the interactions that show the data listed in the table.

 

Parameter

Numbers of carrots P

No's of neighbors N

a = 0.2

 

 

a = 0.4

 

 

a = 1.2

 

 

 

With a = 0.5 examine the following:

 

b = 0.005

 

 

b = 0.001

 

 

b = 0.0008

 

 

 

With b = 0.001 examine the following:

 

c = 0.0005

 

 

c = 0.001

 

 

c = 0.005

 

 

 

 

Using these graph printouts and the table answer these questions (please submit this table, the 9 printed graphs and a printout of the Interaction Engine model formulation screen with your answers):

 

 

 

1) What effect does the intrinsic rate of carrot increase, a, have on the equilibrium population of carrots?

 

2) What effect does increasing a have on neighbor abundance?

 

3) What effect does increasing a have on the rate of return to equilibrium?

 

4) What effect does b have on the equilibrium carrot population?

 

5) What effect does increasing b have on neighbor abundance?

 

6) What effect does increasing c have on the equilibrium carrot population?

 

7) What effect does increasing c have on the equilibrium neighbor population?

 

8) What effect does increasing c have on the stability of carrot-neighbor dynamics?

 

 

Computer Modelling Assignment - Bonus point activity

For an additional 20 bonus points try and perform the following activity, once you have completed your computer modelling assignment, using the Populus interaction engine and answer the questions below:

 

For 20 bonus points:

Illustrate Rosenzweig's "paradox of enrichment" (Rosenzweig, 1971 Science  171: 385-387; Berryman, 1992, Ecology 73(5): 1530-1535) by setting a = 0.5, b = 0.001, c = 0.001, and d = 0.3, and increase K from 500, to 1000, to 4000 to see the paradox.

 

a) Complete a table of carrot and neighbor numbers for these different K values after 100 time intervals as you did above and also submit the 3 printed graphs.

 

Parameter

Numbers of carrots P

Numbers of neighbors N

K = 500

 

 

K = 1000

 

 

K = 4000

 

 

b) What happens to the equilibrium carrot density with increasing K and why is it paradoxical?

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